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ICIS: Gazprom long-term gas contracts to drop 30% by 2030

Gazprom has long favored long-term contracts with pricing indexed to oil, as well as hybrid pricing with elements of spot indexation

ICIS: Gazprom long-term gas contracts to drop 30% by 2030

London, July 9 - Neftegaz.RU. Russia’s long-term natural gas pipeline supply contracts with European customers are set to fall below 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2030, down from 206 bcm this year, according to ICIS data.

Gazprom said it has received requests for additional volumes that it plans to satisfy after the Nord Stream 2 pipeline comes online, according to statements made at a conference in May.

Gazprom also said it prefers to offer volumes for delivery of up to a year on its electronic sales platform (ESP).
This suggests the ESP may have an increasingly important role in satisfying requests for additional volumes.

Several factors indicate that new requests for supply could be met without Nord Stream 2, with the pipeline not necessary to serve a new tranche of demand.
ESP sales with delivery beyond the Day-ahead already make the bulk of activity on the platform.

Long-term contract customers may use the ESP to optimise portfolios by buying on the platform and nominating down off-take when their supply contracts are not in the money.

Nord Stream 2 is a 55 bcm/year pipeline directly connecting Russia and Germany and fully owned by Gazprom.
It will have the capacity to transport around 12% of total EU and UK gas demand in 2020.
It remains uncertain how much of Nord Stream 2’s capacity Gazprom will be able to use due to EU 3rd party access rules.

Russia’s delivery commitments as part of long-term contracts are estimated to drop from over 200 bcm in 2015 to less than 140 bcm in 2030.
Some companies have already re-signed contracts.
Hungary’s MFGK recently signed for another 15 years starting this September, with volumes through this deal coming via Turkey, Bulgaria and Serbia, rather than Ukraine.

In October last year the German arm of Austria’s OMV signed a long-term contract with Gazprom.
In June 2020 Greece’s Mytilineos signed for deliveries until 2030.

Customers with Gazprom contracts expected to end between 2021 and 2024 include companies in Belarus, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Moldova, the Netherlands, Poland, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey and the UK.

Author: Diane Elijah

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