Deepwater production is projected to grow further in the 2030s, with gas output more than doubling in 5 years to 2.1 million boepd by 2035.
Gas from shelf & land reserves will increase by 2035 and will contribute about 46 % of the expected 4 million boepd of total gas output from the region, based on estimated recoverable reserves, development timelines and plans.
As a result of the booming production outlook, greenfield investments are also projected to soar, Rystad said.
Gas and liquids greenfield capital expenditure in the region totalled $12 billion in 2021, with $8 billion spent on deepwater developments.
By 2030, total greenfield investments will surge to almost $40 billion, of which $24 billion will go on deepwater projects.
Siva Prasad, a senior upstream analyst with Rystad Energy, said:
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Production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with natural gas output in particular set to see a boom in output
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Although there have been notable onshore finds, the development of deepwater offshore resources is going to usher in a period of rapid growth for the region
Deepwater projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are risky and can be delayed or unsanctioned due to high development costs, challenges accessing financing, issues with fiscal regimes and other above-ground risks.
With majors continuing to rein in upstream spending and plow a course on the energy transition to help lower emissions, many deepwater schemes will face challenges getting off the drawing board.
European banks are tightening regulations for funding high-emission hydrocarbon projects,and African banks could struggle to provide the necessary financing.
This leaves Asian banks – mainly Chinese – with comparatively less strict regulations on funding fossil fuel developments.
