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Oil prices at $100 could trigger additional 2.2 mln bpd of US tight oil output by 2023

The market may see a «supercycle» – a sustained period of growth, with oil prices remaining around or above $100 per barrel – as demand continues to grow while supplies remain constrained

Oil prices at $100 could trigger additional 2.2 mln bpd of US tight oil output by 2023

Oslo, February 16 - Neftegaz.RU. According to Norway-based independent energy research Rystad Energy, tight oil output from the US could jump by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) if crude prices trade around or above $100 per barrel, driven by growing demand and continued supply constraints.

Rystad said high oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight.
If oil prices reach and remain around $100 per barrel, total production from these core regions would hit 9.9 million bpd by the Q4 of 2023, marking a 2.2 million bpd surge from the same quarter in 2021.

Rystad said total unconventional output - including oil, gas & natural gas liquids - from the core US oil regions had already returned to pre-pandemic levels, totalling around 15.6 million bpd in the Q4 of 2021.

Total output is expected to keep climbing and reach an all-time high of more than 16 million bpd by the end of March this year.

In a $40 per barrel scenario, production will return to 2021 levels by 2024.
Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Nishant Bhushan said:
  • The developments in Eastern Europe will be crucial for the global market as Russia is one of the biggest crude oil producers with a capacity of about 11.2 million bpd
In a $70 scenario, supply from the lower 48 states is expected to trend towards 12 million bpd by late 2025, while a sustained $100 environment would allow US onshore oil volumes to grow to 13.5 million bpd over the next 4 years.

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