Rystad said high oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight.
If oil prices reach and remain around $100 per barrel, total production from these core regions would hit 9.9 million bpd by the Q4 of 2023, marking a 2.2 million bpd surge from the same quarter in 2021.
Rystad said total unconventional output - including oil, gas & natural gas liquids - from the core US oil regions had already returned to pre-pandemic levels, totalling around 15.6 million bpd in the Q4 of 2021.
Total output is expected to keep climbing and reach an all-time high of more than 16 million bpd by the end of March this year.
In a $40 per barrel scenario, production will return to 2021 levels by 2024.
Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Nishant Bhushan said:
- The developments in Eastern Europe will be crucial for the global market as Russia is one of the biggest crude oil producers with a capacity of about 11.2 million bpd