As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising.
Deepwater production is projected to grow further in the 2030s, with gas output more than doubling in 5 years to 2.1 million boepd by 2035.
Gas from shelf & land reserves will increase by 2035 and will contribute about 46 % of the expected 4 million boepd of total gas output from the region, based on estimated recoverable reserves, development timelines and plans.
As a result of the booming production outlook, greenfield investments are also projected to soar, Rystad said.
Gas and liquids greenfield capital expenditure in the region totalled $12 billion in 2021, with $8 billion spent on deepwater developments.
By 2030, total greenfield investments will surge to almost $40 billion, of which $24 billion will go on deepwater projects.
Siva Prasad, a senior upstream analyst with Rystad Energy, said:
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Production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with natural gas output in particular set to see a boom in output
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Although there have been notable onshore finds, the development of deepwater offshore resources is going to usher in a period of rapid growth for the region
Deepwater projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are risky and can be delayed or unsanctioned due to high development costs, challenges accessing financing, issues with fiscal regimes and other above-ground risks.
With majors continuing to rein in upstream spending and plow a course on the energy transition to help lower emissions, many deepwater schemes will face challenges getting off the drawing board.
Majors are, overall, focused on cutting upstream costs, reducing emissions, increasing renewables and the energy transition, meaning such deepwater projects often have to take a backseat when it comes to apportioning investment.
European banks are tightening regulations for funding high-emission hydrocarbon projects,and African banks could struggle to provide the necessary financing.
This leaves Asian banks – mainly Chinese – with comparatively less strict regulations on funding fossil fuel developments.
