Mineral raw materials are still the basis of Kazakhstan’s export, it accounts for 60 % of merchandise exports (according to data from 2019 through 2021).
Oil dominates in the structure of commodity exports, the share of gas is only 5 %
The share of the oil & gas sector in the structure of Kazakhstan's GDP is approximately 21 %, but in a broad definition (taking into account industries serving this sector and financial flows), the contribution of the oil & gas industry, according to the bank, exceeds 30 %.
The bank commented:
- We expect oil production in Kazakhstan to grow by 5-6 % in 2022, compared to the previous year and this growth will offset the decline in 2020 and the lack of production growth in 2021
Taking this into account we assume that the extractive industry can ensure Kazakhstan’s GDP growth by 3 % in 2022 compared to the previous year, the bank added.
The main buyers of Kazakh oil are traditionally European countries – in 2021, the EU received more than 60 % of Kazakhstani oil exports, while China and India accounted for only 10 %.
The bank noted:
- Most of the oil exported by Kazakhstan is transported through Russia
- This is a fairly significant factor of vulnerability, given the recent escalating sanctions pressure on Russia
- However, we proceed from the fact that the probability of blocking Russian oil pipelines is very small and the prospect of a possible reduction in the purchase of Russian energy resources by the EU should ensure stable demand for Kazakhstani hydrocarbons
The bank said:
- US Department of the Treasury issued a clarification about US decision to suspend oil purchases from Russia, clarifying that the ban does not apply to Kazakh oil supplied through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which is 75 % of oil exports of Kazakhstan
- This is good news for Kazakhstan
