- While global O&G capital expenditure will rise nominally in this timeframe, anticipated growth in offshore wind investments will bring Europe, the U.S., and Asia (excl. China) to the tipping point before the end of the decade
- Although we expect global offshore O&G expenditure to increase marginally to more than $140 billion by 2030, the rapidly growing offshore wind sector is forecast to reach a market size of $87 billion over the same period – a 70% increase compared with 2021's market value of $50 billion
- Furthermore, estimates show that less than $10 billion will separate offshore greenfield capex for O&G and offshore wind investments by 2030
China and the UK – the 2 largest offshore wind nations by operational capacity – already reached this crossing point in 2017 and 2020, respectively.
The UK is currently the largest offshore wind nation in the world, with around 10.5 GW of operational capacity.
As the UK is targeting 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, activity levels are forecast to remain high, meaning the offshore wind market is expected to remain larger than the offshore O&G market through 2030.
Europe is expected to be the world’s largest offshore wind region by 2030, with 119 GW of capacity.
The continental crossing point is expected to come in 2026, whereas offshore wind investments in Denmark alone are expected to outstrip O&G as soon as next year.
According to Rystad, the US, meanwhile, has seen declining O&G investment levels, with capex levels expected to fall below $10 billion from 2023 onwards.
At the same time, the Biden administration has set an ambitious federal offshore wind target of 30 GW by 2030.