OPEC: Global oil demand will keep rising until around 2040

Vienna, October 9 - Neftegaz.RU. In its 2020 World Oil Outlook, for the 1st time extended to 2045, the Vienna-based cartel outlined its medium to long-term expectations for the global economy, oil and energy demand.

“The year 2020 will be remembered primarily for the omnipresence, as well as unprecedented scale and reach, of the Covid-19. From an energy point of view, the lockdown-induced economic recession has resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory,” OPEC said in the report.

Globally, oil demand is projected to increase from nearly 100 mb/d in 2019 to around 109 mb/d in 2045. In OECD countries, oil demand is expected to plateau at around 47 mb/d during the period 2022-2025 before starting a longer-term decline towards 35 mb/d by 2045. In contrast, demand in non-OECD countries is projected to rise by 22.5 mb/d over the forecast period, from nearly 52 mb/d in 2019 to 74 mb/d in 2045.

According to the report, oil would remain the largest contributor to the energy mix through to 2045 (27%), followed by gas (25%) and coal (20%). Other renewables – combining mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – will grow by 6.6% p.a. on average, significantly faster than any other source of energy.

The global oil sector will need cumulative investment of $12.6 trillion in the upstream, midstream and downstream through to 2045. “Oil will be needed for years to come, and even if demand plateaus in the long term, it will remain a key fixture in the energy mix,” OPEC ’s report said.

OPEC expects the global population will increase to almost 9.5 billion by 2045, demand for fossil fuels in the global transport and industrial sectors will also continue to grow through 2045.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory. Despite the large drop in 2020, global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by a significant 25% in the period to 2045.

“Future demand will likely remain persistently below past projections due to the lingering effects of the pandemic-related shutdowns and their impact on the global economy and consumer behaviour,” the Opec report said. The cartel sees global oil demand returning and exceeding 2019 levels in 2022.

To read the article in Russian.