Russia shut in nearly 1m bbl/day in April, driving down the world’s supply by 710,000 bbl/day to 98.1m bbl/day, said the IEA.
- Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+and the US, along with a slowdown in demand growth [due to China lockdowns slowing its economy], is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption
These sanctions could include a full phase-out of oil imports from Russia.
The IEA noted:
- If agreed, the new embargoes would accelerate the reorientation of trade flows that is already underway and will force Russian oil companies to shut in more wells …
Despite mounting international pressure and falling oil production, Russian exports have so far held up by and large, according to IEA figures, but the situation could quickly change from now.
The IEA said:
- Major trading houses are winding down deals ahead of a 15 May deadline [emanating from the sanctions imposed on Russia] to halt all transactions with state-controlled Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Transneft
- Following a supply decline of nearly 1m bbl/day in April, losses could expand to around 3m bbl/day during the 2nd half of the year