Supplies would become increasingly concentrated with a small number of low-cost producers.
OPEC’s share of a much-reduced global oil supply grows from around 37% in recent years to 52% in 2050, a level higher than at any point in the history of oil markets.
Oil demand falls from around 90 million barrels per day in 2020 to 24 in 2050, while natural gas demand drops from 3,900 billion m3 to around 1,700.
Remaining fossil fuels are used in the production of non‐energy goods, like plastics, in plants fitted with carbon capture, and in sectors where low‐emissions technology options are scarce.
IEA said the scenario was a clear threat to company earnings, but insisted there were also opportunities for the oil and gas industry.
The organisation said the resources and skills of oil and gas companies were a «good match» for some new technologies needed to tackle emissions in sectors were reductions are challenging.
They are particularly well-suited to carbon capture, usage and storage, hydrogen, bioenergy and offshore wind.
IEA also stressed the opportunity to get to net-zero by 2050 was «not lost» for the energy sector, as a whole, but that the pathway was «narrow» and required an unprecedented transformation.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said:
- Our Roadmap shows the priority actions that are needed today to ensure the opportunity of net-zero emissions by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost
- The scale and speed of the efforts demanded by this critical and formidable goal – our best chance of tackling climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5 °C – make this perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced
- The IEA’s pathway to this brighter future brings a historic surge in clean energy investment that creates millions of new jobs and lifts global economic growth
- Moving the world onto that pathway requires strong and credible policy actions from governments, underpinned by much greater international cooperation
The roadmap calls for annual additions of solar PV to reach 630 gigawatts by 2030, the equivalent of installing «the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day».