Oslo, November 13 - Neftegaz.RU.
Rystad Energy, an independent Norwegian consulting company, has published a report evaluating the potential impact of Nord Stream 2 on the German gas market.
The experts have calculated that the demand for gas in Germany will grow from the current 90 bcma to 110 bcma by 2034, taking into consideration country
’s plans to reject nuclear and coal generation. At the same time, gas imports from the Netherlands and Norway will decline, which, according to Rystad, might push Germany to look for new sources of gas imports.
With the ambitious goal of decommissioning all nuclear power plants by 2022 and all coal power plants by 2038, German gas consumption is forecasted to rise as more gas-power generation will be needed to meet demand and to back-up the intermittency of renewable sources.
Data from the last complete year, 2019, shows that Germany
– acting also as a gas transport hub – imported 55.5 Bcm of gas from Russia, 27 Bcm from Norway and 23.4 from the Netherlands, with the three countries accounting for 92% of German gas imports.
The estimates of Rystad
show that importing additional volumes of Russian pipeline gas through Nord Stream 2 would be the most reliable and cheapest option to meet the growing gas demand in Germany, compared to either LNG supplies from the USA, or to imports through other intra-Europe pipeline routes.
“If Germany decides that the price is the most important factor, Nord Stream 2
will go ahead, as it diversifies supply to the market, reducing the risk of high energy prices”, – said Carlos Torres Diaz, Rystad Energy’s Head of Power and Gas markets.