Rystad: Petrobras poised to become world’s largest oil producer by 2030

Brasilia, November 21 - Neftegaz.RU. Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras is on track to become the world’s largest oil producer among publicly listed companies by 2030, based on Rystad Energy’s latest data and forecasts.

Brazil’s biggest-ever oil auctions in November were generally deemed to be disappointing, receiving muted interest from international exploration and production companies. Petrobras could not have asked for a better outcome, Rystad said. Namely, the world’s fastest-growing oil producer gained nearly full control of more than 8 billion barrels of oil in the Buzios field, where a 6th floater is being planned.

To develop these and other resources off the coast of the South American country, Brazil is set for a whopping $70 billion offshore capital investment spree between 2020 and 2025, solely on field development. This program will have a monumental effect on Petrobras, Rystad said.

“Petrobras can, in a matter of years, become the world’s largest oil producer among publicly listed companies. The significance is huge and symbolic,” commented Aditya Ravi, VP of Rystad’s upstream team, specialized in E&P activities in Latin America. “We predict that Petrobras alone can boost its production numbers by more than 1.3 million barrels per day over the next decade.”

During the course of 2019, Petrobras has evolved from 5th place to become the 3rd-largest oil producer, reaching output of around 2.2 million bpd in the Q3. Rosneft and PetroChina top the list over the world’s largest public E&P companies.

Based on Rystad Energy’s latest forecasts, Petrobras could be poised to overtake PetroChina over the next few months, and potentially dethrone the ruling Russian producer Rosneft over the next decade, thanks in no small part to its latest acquisitions.

Brazil’s production could be pushed from 2.8 million bpd in 2019 average to over 5.5 million bpd thanks to Petrobras’ potential peak output of almost 3.8 million bpd by 2030.