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OPEC Not Following Through

Evidence of cuts lacking in Q2 plans...

OPEC Not Following Through

OPEC has, thus far, not shown signs of curbing the 1.5mn barrels per day (bpd) overproduction.

Crude allocations to key customers in March have remained unchanged with Iran and Kuwait being the two large producers who have kept their production levels mostly unchanged. The lack of change in production comes despite the decision last week to reduce production quotas by 1mn bpd as of April 1 and to curb overproduction. The latter part of the decision was to take immediate effect.

However, as oil producers need to give their customers about 20 days? notice for changes in exports and March volumes are being set now, the decision seems to have not been implemented. Saudi Arabia, OPEC?s largest producer, has also kept March volumes at the level observed in February and Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi stated at the end of last week that there is nothing in the structure of the cartel that would prevent them from increasing output in Q2/2004 if the latest decision causes ?significant heat?.

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