While Deutsche Bank's oil outlook calls for an average price of $47.50 a barrel this year, Sieminski sees a $45 average price in the first quarter, rising to $50 in the second quarter, then sliding to $40-$45 for the last half of 2009.
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Deutsche Bank Predicts OPEC Cuts Won't Boost Oil Prices
Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank told Reuters that the situation is difficult, and the previous cuts had effect
OPEC efforts to pare production are "coming in better than early expectations" but the exact amount of crude that must be cut to stabilize prices remains a guessing game, Sieminski told reporters at Deutsche Bank's Houston trading floor.
"They have to cut four to five million barrels a day in quotas; they have to get a good portion of that in real, wet barrels off the market," Sieminski said. "In a sense, OPEC is chasing the economy down."
Even if OPEC succeeds at paring worldwide supply, Sieminski sees a bumpy ride for oil prices this year. He does not expect the U.S. economy to regain its footing until the second half of the year, ahead of other struggling economies such as China and India.
While Deutsche Bank's oil outlook calls for an average price of $47.50 a barrel this year, Sieminski sees a $45 average price in the first quarter, rising to $50 in the second quarter, then sliding to $40-$45 for the last half of 2009.
While Deutsche Bank's oil outlook calls for an average price of $47.50 a barrel this year, Sieminski sees a $45 average price in the first quarter, rising to $50 in the second quarter, then sliding to $40-$45 for the last half of 2009.
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