The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce 14 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, four of which might reach Category 3 or higher, weather data provider Impact Weather announced. The slightly higher-than-average prediction could raise concerns among oil & gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico, where powerful hurricanes in recent years have interrupted production, damaged platforms and knocked pipeline systems out of service. An average hurricane season produces 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two storms that reach Category 3 or higher.
Impact bases its predictions on the water temperatures over the main development region and the direction and intensity of wind shear. According to the report, water temperature anomalies are averaging 3.6 to 5.4F higher than figures taken at this same time last year. This means that there is considerably more heat available for tropical cyclones to develop. The warmer temperatures are expected to persist throughout hurricane season, which begins 1 June and lasts through November.
The presence of an El Nino weather system in the Pacific Ocean means a higher westerly wind shear that usually results in a reduced amount of named tropical cyclones. Analysts at Impact Weather expect the El Nino to weaken this spring and eventually dissipate by the summer. The tropical Atlantic may be more active this year as a result of a weak Bermuda High producing slightly less easterly low-level wind shear.
Author: Trevor Demara
