Oil prices tumbled on November 9, 2016, on fears that Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election will crimp global economic activity extending a global glut in oil.
West Texas Crude futures for delivery in December slid as much as 4% in Asian trading hours before recovering to trade down 1.58% to $44.27 in early European trading. Brent Crude futures for delivery in January fell 1.48% to $45.36.
Wednesday's fall extends a one-month decline from above $50 a barrel, as analysts and traders lost confidence that OPEC will agree a meaningful production cut when it meets at the end of November. OPEC in October promised to cut production from record highs in a bid to rebalance oil supply and demand and prop up prices that are more than 50% below levels reached in 2014.
The fall in the oil price was matched Wednesday by gains in defensive assets including gold and Treasury bonds, while equity markets tumbled and the U.S. dollar fell against a basket of other currencies. Markets, like the polls, had expected a victory for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
The U.S. election result is now the second major political event this year to have truly wrong-footed both pollsters and markets, wrote BNP Paribas analysts in a note that drew parallels between Trump's election and Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
Trump's election platform has included promises to re-write trade treaties and alluded to the introduction of tariffs on certain imported goods, both of which could weigh on international trade and economic growth. His election also raises the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which would weigh on the U.S. economy.
Trump has also promised to repeal climate change treaties, potentially providing a boost to the U.S. fossil fuel sector that could encourage increased production that would add to global supply. Trumps win is likely to send oil stocks down with the wider market but could ultimately prove a boon for large U.S. oil companies, such as Exxon ( XOM) and Chevron ( CVX) , according to BNP.
Author: Paul Whitfield
