Russia’s oil production slipped by half a million bpd in March, by a full million bpd in April, with many analysts stating concern that those barrels may never return to the market. April’s OPEC+ production quota was set at 10.436 million bpd.
But according to Novak, the picture isn’t quite so bleak, with Russian crude oil production now stabilizing despite sanctions.
Novak told TASS, without quantifying the increased production figures:
- Looking at the figures of early May, they are better than in April
- The situation is stable, the output increased in comparison to April
- We are counting on partial recovery of data in May and that it will be better
But even that increase is a far cry from Russia’s May output quota set by the OPEC+ group, which is 10.549 million barrels per day.
In April, Russia’s economy ministry had estimated that it could shed some 17% of its pre-invasion oil production this year - an estimation that is widely shared, if not conservative, in the industry.
The fear of Russia’s «lost» oil production is, in part, what triggered the United States and other IEA members to agree to release millions of barrels of crude oil from emergency stockpiles to stabilize the market.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia lowered its June official selling price differentials for crude oil to China - largely seen as a bellwether for oil prices.