The April summit of the "five" Caspian countries could become historical, but it hasn?t happened. At the initial stage it was planned to form several intergovernmental agreements, which should be successfully signed by the states heads. But in practice there were a lot of not settled questions.
The only one achieved result of this event is the date of next meeting in Teheran.
Teheran position is clear: they think that Caspian Sea bottom and water should be divided between all countries of region on equal 20% parts to everyone. Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan suggest to divide Caspian Sea by the modified medial line. Turkmen agrees with ?Northern-Caspian three?, but offers its own system of coordinates for median line. In this situation countries can?t find any conciliatory proposal.
For Moscow the military and political questions were very important, but the summit?s results have not affected on Russian military policy in Caspian region in any way. For the last five years Russia has doubled its military forces at the region by relocating fighting ships from western ports. Recently in Caspiisk the military airport has been built and new cruiser will be delivered in August. Also new ships, helicopters, boats have appeared.
Neutral Turkmen does not refuse audit of its fighting power in this region.
The President of Turkmen organizes review at the NAVY, while he has officially refused to have the Navies. The army is equipped by the Ukraine 20 military boats and the American patrol boat "Point Jackson". After the Soviet Union disintegration republic has received the largest aviation group in the Central Asia.
The Iran Navies on Caspian Sea are very powerful, they are the second after Russian Navies. Teheran plans to form tactical unions, which will be able to military actions, if it?ll be necessary.
Azerbaijan was given 25% of the ships of the surface flotilla after the USSR disintegration and now it plans to form its military forces with the USA and GB help. It has already begin negotiate with them.
Opening of the supreme naval school of the Defense Ministry in Aktau has confirmed experts forecasts, that in the nearest future Kazakhstan will have the Navies. Now they are not officially existed and the forces protecting the Kazakh part of Caspian Sea recently included 3 thousand military men, 10 boats of a coast guard and 3 helicopters.
The increasing of military forces on Caspian Sea is a consequence of the problems at the legislative level. The confirmation of this is a last year's incident with the indicative flight of the Iranian military plane above the Azerbaijan research boats, which were working on disputable area Araz-Alov-Sharg. Today Teheran and Baku apply to these deposits, located in 50-80 kilometers to the north from line Astara - Gasanculy.
There is another disputable point on Caspian Sea - the deposits Azery and Tchirag. Now they are in the center of the conflict between Turkmen and Azerbaijan. According to Turkish information, these deposits are situated in 84 kilometers from Turkmen and in 184 from Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan has found these deposits and now involves foreign investments.
Deposits of northern part of Caspian Sea are under the control of Caspian flotilla forces and Russian coastal border defense. This fact doesn?t satisfy Astana completely, but now it can stabilize the Russian - Kazakh relationship.
The first stage of negotiations has not solve any problems, but it doesn?t mean neither the end of political dialogue or commercial projects freezing, in which about 30 million dollars are invested. Result of the "Caspian five" first summit has proved that agreement can be achieved only after long-term preparation.
The situation in Caspian region is still very nonstable. Russia will have to regulate negotiating processes. In the process of dividing Caspian resources Russian takes the leading position and it plans to take benefit from this situation. It has already achieved arrangements with Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan can be the next.
Solving the problem by finding the compromise will give only a temporary effect. It is necessary to find an alternative variant, which can suite everybody. It will be better to arrange the next stage of negotiations on the Russian territory, it will allow to influence on not consent participant.
Author: Galina Arsenchuk, Constantin Alexandrov
