Did Russia just call the end of the OPEC deal?

OPEC and Russia have tapered oil production according to the agreed upon production cut deal, but the United States continues to increase its production and is picking up market share in the process—market share formerly held by OPEC members and the other non-OPEC signatories to the deal including Russia.

Any failure in the production cut deal, however, will have a negative impact on prices, and could theoretically plunge prices into the $40 per barrel territory. This, in turn, would squeeze US oil producers and hurt new investments, Siluanov said.

“(If the deal is abandoned) the oil prices will go down, then the new investments will shrink, American output will be lower, because the production cost for shale oil is higher than for traditional output.”

Siluanov’s comments came in tandem with warnings of a looming global economic recession. “The risks of an upcoming global recession are very high,” the Finance Minister said. “We are ready for a change in global energy prices – we have prepared the budget, the reserves, the balance of payments. We have created this kind of system.”

Russia has been the wildcard in the OPEC+ production cut deal, and has long sent mixed messages regarding their all-in-ness of the deal. And as US production increases and its market share expanding, OPEC’s clout is waning, highlighting the importance of its relationship with Russia.

OPEC’s production has fallen to levels below its commitment. The US, however, continues to increase production, and currently sits at an all-time-high of 12.2 million bpd, according to the EIA. Before the original production cut deal was established in December 2016, US oil production sat at 8.77 million bpd - a significant increase that undoubtably puts pressure on any of the countries who have tapered production.

President Vladimir Putin assured markets that Russia would continue its cooperation with OPEC. “We will closely monitor the market, but we will continue cooperation with OPEC,” Putin told TASS, following it up with a more ambiguous chaser.

“If the market situation develops in such a way that reserves increase dramatically, or the US seizes Venezuelan oil and quickly increases its accessibility on the world markets, or something positive happens in Libya in terms of the political situation, and Libya enters the global market, or someone thinks that it is necessary to stop putting pressure on Iran and Iran enters the market with additional volumes, then we will have to take all this into account and make the appropriate decision."

Under the terms of the production cut deal forged with OPEC, Russia agreed to shave 230,000 bpd to reach 11.191 million bpd.